Hi Folks:
Today, a study came out that shows that 74 percent of those sampled are in favor of the new proposed streetcar line on the Brooklyn - Queens waterfront. In an article (not attached), the writer asked some persons about the future of the proposed line and a person said that the line may be obsolete by 2020 because of automated taxi fleets like those proposed by Uber. Some people think that in the future, instead of going to a subway station or a bus or tram stop, a user can call a taxi service and deliver the person driverless to a destination. Therefore, why invest in an expensive light rail / tram line?
I believe that in rural areas, or suburban area, this idea may work. You do not have to purchase a car and the car will not side idle in your garage for hours. These automated cars will be more efficient because there is little down time. But what happens when you have a large building surrounded by narrow streets like in Manhattan? Can thousands of passengers be delivered to one location surrounded by narrow streets by individual cars? What about the Brooklyn - Queens waterfront trolley? Perhaps Brooklyn - Queens trips can be handled by car but what if the person wants to bet to Exchange Place in Manhattan, a narrow street? In my opinion, for congested cities with narrow streets and for cities surrounded by rivers and bays, the autocar option may not work because the roadways are already congested. For suburban or rural areas, rapid transit may be dead in the future because of this. For places in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx, that are presently far away from rapid transit, this will spell the end of any hope of any subway extensions because if you do not need to go to Manhattan, In a city like NY, surrounded by waterways and limited number of bridges and tunnels, can you pack in more cars as you drive people away from buses and subways? Everything goes in cycles: Rapid Transit Development in the late 19th Century, a peak in the 1920's, rise of the automobile and decline of rapid transit in the 1950-1960's. Rebirth in the 1970's to 2015 in trams, trolleys and subways and now perhaps a decline to robot cars.
