Southern Staten Island Ice Cap Map Scenario

This map was constructed using the same shapefiles that were used  on the Red Hook Polar Ice Cap Map Melt map and the same precautions apply.  See previous Ice Cap Map Scenarios for details.  It seems that the major impact will be felt in the 2020's to 2050's, if this scenario is played out.  This is just an estimate.

Red Hook Area Polar Ice Caps Melts Flooding Scenarios: 2020, 2050,2080

In this ARCGIS map, I brought in the shape file that was used in the previous post for Staten Island.  The area enclosed by the red polygons are those areas that are projected to be under water by 2080 if the polar ice caps should melt.  The previous precautions state by the City of New York agency applies here.  The area enclosed by the black polygons are those areas to be flooded by 2080 if there is a steady polar ice cap melt until 2080.  The yellow polygons are those areas to be flooded by 2050.  The polar ice cap flooding of Red Hook generally follows, but is not exactly the same as the hurricane warning zones, A, B and C.  The area enclosed by the red polygons represent those areas to be flooded by 2020 and appear to be the lowest elevation areas.  Sorry for the mistake on the map title:  Senarios =  Scenarios.

Source:
This file contains 3 sets of shapefiles representing possible Flood Hazard Zone Areas in the 2020's, 2050's, and 2080's, based upon a rapid ice melt scenario. The NYC Office of Long-Term Planning and Sustainability (NYC OLTPS) and the City of New York assume no responsibility for the accuracy of this data or its suitability for any purposes. All users should independently verify the accuracy of the data for their purposes. This data on 1-in-100 year flood zones for New York City with Projected Sea Level Rise was produced by the Institute for Sustainable Cities, City University of New York for an analysis of large geographic areas only. 1. Methods and Caveat – The projected flood extents included in this data reflect a “bathtub” methodology whereby a flood elevation is extrapolated landward until it reaches the equivalent contour height on land. This approach does not account for cumulative effects of soils, vegetation, surface permeability, bathymetry, infrastructure and beach structures, friction, and other factors that affect the movement of floodwaters resulting in local variations in flooding extent. 2. Error – Numerous sources of potential error are present in the data. These include limitations of model input and scope (climate and FEMA floodplain models), error inherent in model output, errors in and coarseness of topography, the rounding of base flood elevations to the nearest foot, and in GIS technique. 3. Interpretation - The floodplains delineated in this data do not represent precise flood boundaries but rather illustrate two distinct areas of interest: A) areas that do not currently flood but are expected to potentially do so in the future and B) areas that do not currently flood and are unlikely to do so in the timeline of this research

Possible Flood Hazard Zones in 2020's, 2050's and 2080's Rapid Melt Scenarios for Staten Island

This Staten Island map was prepared using ARCGIS and was made possible from the shape file that is provided by the NYC Office of Long Term Planning.  The areas enclosed in the red polygons are those areas most likely to be flooded by 2080 if there is a continuous melt of the ice caps.  The yellow polygons enclose areas most likely to be flooded by 2050 while the green areas are most likely to be flooded by 2020.  You can see as far as the Staten Island Rapid Transit System is concerned, assuming the worst scenario, most of the system is safe except the northern portion near St. Geoge and the southern end.  Please see statement from agency that provided the shape files for this map.



Source:
This file contains 3 sets of shapefiles representing possible Flood Hazard Zone Areas in the 2020's, 2050's, and 2080's, based upon a rapid ice melt scenario. The NYC Office of Long-Term Planning and Sustainability (NYC OLTPS) and the City of New York assume no responsibility for the accuracy of this data or its suitability for any purposes. All users should independently verify the accuracy of the data for their purposes. This data on 1-in-100 year flood zones for New York City with Projected Sea Level Rise was produced by the Institute for Sustainable Cities, City University of New York for an analysis of large geographic areas only. 1. Methods and Caveat – The projected flood extents included in this data reflect a “bathtub” methodology whereby a flood elevation is extrapolated landward until it reaches the equivalent contour height on land. This approach does not account for cumulative effects of soils, vegetation, surface permeability, bathymetry, infrastructure and beach structures, friction, and other factors that affect the movement of floodwaters resulting in local variations in flooding extent. 2. Error – Numerous sources of potential error are present in the data. These include limitations of model input and scope (climate and FEMA floodplain models), error inherent in model output, errors in and coarseness of topography, the rounding of base flood elevations to the nearest foot, and in GIS technique. 3. Interpretation - The floodplains delineated in this data do not represent precise flood boundaries but rather illustrate two distinct areas of interest: A) areas that do not currently flood but are expected to potentially do so in the future and B) areas that do not currently flood and are unlikely to do so in the timeline of this research.

In the next map, I added the Hurricane zones where A is the most servere.  The 2080 senario is in cross hatch.  You can see for the St. George area, the projected flood zones for 2080 follows the Hurricane Zone pattern, but not exactly.